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FIRE & Retirement

How to Calculate Your FIRE Number in Canada (CPP, OAS & the 4% Rule)

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Financial independence looks different for Canadians — CPP and OAS significantly change your target number

Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) is built on a simple premise: save 25 times your annual expenses, withdraw 4% per year, and your money lasts indefinitely. But this framework, developed primarily from US data, needs significant adjustment for Canadian investors — particularly because of CPP, OAS, and our tax system.

25×
Annual expenses = traditional FIRE number (4% rule)
$15,300
Maximum CPP payment in 2026 (age 65)
$8,470
Maximum OAS payment in 2026 (age 65)

The 4% Rule: What It Actually Says

The 4% rule emerged from William Bengen's 1994 research analyzing US market data back to 1926. He found that a 4% annual withdrawal rate from a balanced portfolio had never been depleted over any 30-year historical period.

Critical limitation: The research was based on US market returns and a 30-year horizon. A Canadian early retiree at 40 may need a 50-year horizon — suggesting a safer withdrawal rate closer to 3.25–3.5%.

The Canadian FIRE Number Adjustment

CPP and OAS significantly reduce the portfolio needed to sustain retirement.

Example: Couple Retiring at 60

Annual spending: $80,000 | CPP for two at 65 (average): $17,600 | OAS for two at 65: $15,000
Portfolio gap after 65: $80,000 − $32,600 = $47,400/year
FIRE number: $47,400 × 25 = $1,185,000 (vs $2,000,000 without CPP/OAS)
Saving: $815,000 in required portfolio

CPP/OAS Benefits in 2026

Income SourceMaximum at 65 (2026)Average Canadian Benefit
CPP$15,300/year~$8,800/year
OAS$8,470/year~$7,500/year
Combined maximum$23,770/year~$16,300/year

FIRE Variants Explained

FIRE TypeTarget PortfolioLifestyle
Lean FIRE$500K – $800KVery frugal, minimal spending
Regular FIRE$1M – $1.5MComfortable, same lifestyle
Fat FIRE$2.5M+Travel, dining, no sacrifice
Barista FIRE$400K – $800KPart-time work supplements savings
Coast FIREEnough to grow to targetWork to cover expenses only

Early Retirement Considerations in Canada

CPP Impact of Early Retirement

If you stop working before 60, your CPP entitlement may be significantly below the maximum. CPP is based on your contributory earnings during your working years. Check your actual projected benefit at Service Canada My Account.

Provincial Health Coverage Advantage

Unlike the US, where pre-65 retirees need to purchase private health insurance (often $500–$1,500/month), Canadian provincial health insurance covers most medical costs indefinitely. Budget $2,000–$5,000/year per person for dental, vision, prescriptions, and paramedical services not covered provincially.

Calculate Your FIRE Number

Model your retirement with Monte Carlo simulation, Coast FIRE, and Barista FIRE modes

Open F.I.R.E. Calculator →

Frequently Asked Questions

The 4% rule is a reasonable starting point but needs adjustment for Canadians. For a 40–50 year retirement, research suggests 3.25–3.5% is safer. However, because CPP and OAS cover a portion of your spending needs, the effective withdrawal rate from your investable portfolio may be well below 4% — providing significant additional safety margin.
Log in to Service Canada My Account to see your Statement of Contributions and projected benefit at different start ages. For early retirement planning, ask Service Canada to run a projection assuming zero future contributions from your planned retirement date. This gives you the most accurate picture of what you will receive based on your actual earnings history.
Home equity is typically not included in the investable portfolio that generates your 4% withdrawal. Your home is illiquid and does not generate income unless you downsize, rent it out, or use a reverse mortgage. Most FIRE practitioners calculate their number based on investable assets only, treating home equity as a backup or legacy asset.
⚠️ CPP and OAS amounts are indexed to inflation and subject to change. FIRE projections depend on market returns that cannot be guaranteed. This is educational — not financial advice. Consult a certified financial planner (CFP) for personalized retirement planning.